The final week of Q1 2026 brought milestones across several platforms, from Robinhood Sports crossing a cumulative contract threshold to DraftKings pushing into new states. As the quarter closes, here is a look at what happened and where the industry stands heading into Q2.
Q1 2026 Prediction Market Volume Recap
The first quarter of 2026 delivered record-breaking volume for the prediction market industry. Total regulated US prediction market volume exceeded $28 billion in Q1 alone, compared to roughly $14 billion for the same period last year. While Q4 2025 was boosted by the election cycle, Q1 2026 proves that the growth is structural rather than event-driven.
Kalshi led the way with an estimated $18 billion in quarterly volume, maintaining its roughly two-thirds market share among regulated platforms. Robinhood Sports accounted for a significant portion of the remaining volume, driven by its massive user base and seamless integration with brokerage accounts. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions combined for an estimated $3.5 billion, with both platforms showing strong quarter-over-quarter growth as they expand state availability.
The unregulated market tells a similar story. Polymarket processed an estimated $7.2 billion in Q1 volume across its crypto-native markets, up from $3.8 billion in Q1 2025. For a head-to-head comparison of the two largest platforms, see our Kalshi vs Polymarket breakdown.
Sports markets were the single largest category across all platforms, accounting for approximately 48% of total volume. Economics and politics each represented around 18%, with weather, crypto, and culture markets making up the balance.
Robinhood Sports Crosses 5 Billion Cumulative Contracts
Robinhood Sports hit 5 billion cumulative contracts traded this week, a milestone that underscores how quickly the brokerage giant has scaled its prediction market offering. The pace of growth has been staggering — Robinhood crossed 3 billion contracts in November 2025, meaning it has added 2 billion contracts in roughly four months.
The bulk of Robinhood's volume comes from sports markets, particularly NFL, NBA, and MLB. The platform's primary advantage remains distribution: more than 24 million brokerage accounts have instant access to prediction markets without creating a separate account or completing additional KYC verification. The frictionless onboarding converts casual investors into prediction market participants at a rate no other platform can match.
Robinhood's event contracts are powered by Kalshi's order book and regulatory infrastructure. This means that when you trade on Robinhood Sports, you are ultimately trading against the same liquidity pool as Kalshi users. The partnership has been mutually beneficial — Kalshi gets access to Robinhood's distribution, and Robinhood gets a new revenue stream without the regulatory burden of obtaining its own CFTC license.
DraftKings Expanding to Additional States
DraftKings Predictions announced this week that it has received regulatory approval to offer prediction markets in four additional states, bringing its total availability to 28 states plus the District of Columbia. The newly approved states include Minnesota, Connecticut, Iowa, and New Mexico.
DraftKings is leveraging its existing DFS licensing infrastructure to speed up the state approval process. Because prediction market event contracts share regulatory overlap with daily fantasy sports in many jurisdictions, DraftKings has been able to secure approvals faster than platforms starting from scratch. The company expects to be live in 32 or more states by the end of Q2 2026.
For existing DraftKings users, the expansion means access to prediction markets directly within the DraftKings app. The user experience mirrors the sportsbook interface, with event contracts appearing alongside traditional DFS contests and sports betting markets. For a comparison of the two DFS-operator platforms, see FanDuel vs DraftKings Predictions.
Manifold Markets Launches New Community Features
Manifold Markets rolled out several new features this week aimed at strengthening its community of forecasters. The headline addition is a new "Forecaster Leagues" system that groups participants into competitive tiers based on their calibration scores and trading performance. Leagues reset quarterly, with top performers earning badges and bonus play-money that can be used to create markets or boost liquidity in existing ones.
Manifold also introduced an improved market creation wizard that guides new users through setting resolution criteria, choosing between binary and multiple-choice formats, and setting initial liquidity levels. The previous creation flow was flexible but could be confusing for newcomers who were not sure how to define clear resolution conditions.
A third update is the addition of "Expert Panels" — curated groups of forecasters with strong track records on specific topics who can collectively tag markets as particularly well-informed. These panels do not change market prices, but they surface high-quality forecasts and help users distinguish well-calibrated predictions from noise.
These features reinforce Manifold's position as the most community-driven prediction market platform available. While it operates on play money rather than real money, its forecasting accuracy data and vibrant user base make it a valuable complement to real-money platforms.
Most Active Markets of the Week
The most-traded markets across platforms during the final week of Q1:
Kalshi. The "Fed cuts rates before July 2026" contract led volume with over $48 million in weekly turnover. NBA regular season outcome markets collectively topped $120 million as playoff seeding races heated up.
Robinhood Sports. MLB opening week contracts dominated, with game-level markets across the full Thursday slate generating record first-day volume for the baseball season. NBA contracts remained the most actively traded category overall.
Polymarket. The "Trump runs for President in 2028" contract continued to attract heavy volume at $0.34, making it one of the most-traded political contracts on the platform. The "Bitcoin above $100K by June 2026" contract sat at $0.42 after a volatile week in crypto markets.
DraftKings Predictions. March Madness Final Four markets were the clear leader as the college basketball tournament entered its final weekend. DraftKings saw roughly 3x its normal daily volume during the tournament's second weekend.
Looking Ahead to Q2
Q2 2026 sets up as another strong quarter for the industry. The NBA and NHL playoffs will drive sustained sports market activity, while the midterm election cycle begins to generate real volume in political markets as primary season kicks off. On the economic front, the Fed's May and June meetings will keep rate decision markets in focus. Stay up to date on the live odds page for real-time pricing across all platforms.