Live Prediction Market Odds

Real-time odds from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus. Updated every 5 minutes.

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Live Prediction Market Odds

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will Trump finish his second term?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?

Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?