Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

The current market price is 97% Yes / 3% No on Manifold Markets. This price reflects the aggregate view of traders on the platform and is updated every 5 minutes.

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Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an event occurring. A price of 70 cents means traders collectively believe there is a 70% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't). If you're correct, each contract pays out $1.00.