Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

The current market price is 27% Yes / 73% No on Manifold Markets. This price reflects the aggregate view of traders on the platform and is updated every 5 minutes.

This market is available on Manifold Markets. You can view it directly on the platform or compare odds across multiple prediction markets on our Live Odds page.

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an event occurring. A price of 70 cents means traders collectively believe there is a 70% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't). If you're correct, each contract pays out $1.00.