The original US political prediction market
PredictIt is the longest-running political prediction market in the United States, with over 400,000 registered users since its founding in 2014. Operated by Victoria University of Wellington and administered by Aristotle under CFTC authorization, PredictIt is headquartered in Washington, DC. The platform focuses exclusively on US political markets and operates under a unique regulatory framework that imposes a $3,500 per-market investment cap and restricts activity to academic research purposes.
PredictIt uses a binary share model where traders buy Yes or No shares on political outcomes, priced between $0.01 and $0.99. If the outcome occurs, Yes shares pay $1.00 and No shares expire worthless. Shares trade on a continuous order book where buyers and sellers set their own prices.
The platform imposes strict position limits: traders can invest a maximum of $850 per contract type per market and no more than $3,500 total across all positions in a single market. This cap was established as part of PredictIt's CFTC no-action letter, which authorized the platform for academic and research purposes rather than commercial trading.
PredictIt's primary distinction is its political specialization and decade-long track record. The platform has covered every major US election cycle since 2014, building the largest historical dataset of political prediction market data in the country. With 400,000+ registered users, it maintains the largest community of politically focused prediction traders.
The platform's academic affiliation with Victoria University of Wellington provides access to research data and analysis. PredictIt markets are frequently cited by political analysts, media outlets, and academics studying election forecasting. The platform's real-time pricing data serves as a widely referenced political probability indicator.
PredictIt has the highest fee structure of any major prediction market platform. The platform charges a 10% fee on profits from winning trades and a 5% fee on all withdrawals. These fees compound: a trader who earns $100 in profit pays $10 in profit fees, and if they withdraw the remaining $90, they pay an additional $4.50 in withdrawal fees.
Deposits via credit or debit card are free. The minimum deposit is $5. Withdrawal processing takes 5-10 business days, which is significantly slower than competitors. The combined 10% profit plus 5% withdrawal fee structure makes PredictIt the most expensive prediction market in the US by a wide margin.
PredictIt's web interface is dated and has not undergone a significant redesign in years. The platform uses a basic layout with market listings, simple order forms, and limited charting capabilities. There is no mobile app, and the website does not perform well on mobile browsers.
Onboarding requires account creation and KYC verification, which can take several days. The $3,500 per-market cap means serious traders quickly hit position limits, forcing them to spread capital across multiple markets or seek other platforms for larger positions. The lack of modern features like advanced charting, API access, or portfolio analytics puts PredictIt behind newer competitors.
PredictIt offers exclusively political markets. Categories include presidential elections (primary and general), congressional races (Senate and House), gubernatorial elections, Supreme Court decisions, cabinet and executive branch appointments, legislative outcomes, and political approval ratings.
The platform typically lists 50-100 active markets at any given time, far fewer than Kalshi or Polymarket. Market creation is controlled by PredictIt staff, with no user-submitted market requests. The narrow political focus provides deep coverage of US elections but offers nothing for traders interested in sports, economics, weather, or other categories.
PredictIt is best for political enthusiasts who want to trade exclusively on US elections and political outcomes with small positions. It suits casual traders who are not deterred by the $3,500 cap and high fees, and who value the platform's decade-long track record in political forecasting. Researchers and academics benefit from PredictIt's historical data and university affiliation.
PredictIt pioneered the US political prediction market category and retains a loyal user base of 400,000+ politically engaged traders. However, the platform has fallen behind newer competitors in nearly every measurable dimension. Its 10% profit fee plus 5% withdrawal fee is the highest in the industry, the $3,500 per-market cap severely limits serious trading, the web interface is outdated, and there is no mobile app. For traders who only want political markets and value PredictIt's long track record, it remains a viable option. For everyone else, Kalshi and Polymarket offer better political market coverage with lower fees, higher limits, and modern interfaces.
